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Oscar Predictions

This image shows 2018 Oscar contender titles
18/01/2018

For those who may not know, I am an avid movie buff. I really enjoy watching movies and analyzing, providing critiques on the movies and performances.

 

 Each year I write about my favourite films. I also like to offer my picks on the films and performances that I feel will score nominations at the Academy Awards, as well as what I would like to see nominated.

This past year I felt many of the “hyped” films did not impress me and other movies were just average. There were some exceptions – one being Wonder Woman that I felt was one of the best super hero movies in recent years.

 

 Halfway through the year I was wondering if we would end up with some quality movies to contend for Oscars in early 2018. Thankfully, by year's end, the movies released more than made up for the lack of quality from the movies released earlier in the year. 

 

Below I provide a run down on who I think the likely nominees will be in the major categories. I also make my personal choices on films, actors and directors I most want to see nominated. I am calling this “My Letter to The Academy”.

 

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name

Dunkirk

Get Out

I Tonya

Lady Bird

The Big Sick

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

 

Several years ago, the Academy made a change in the category for Best Picture, which was to allow up to 10 films to compete in the Best Picture category. It does not mean 10 films will make the cut but there is the potential each year.

 

In order to be nominated, a film needs to get at least 5% of the vote. The Golden Globes completely shut out last summer’s indie hit “The Big Sick” but I think the Academy will not make the same mistake. It certainly deserves to be among the films vying for the night’s big trophy.

 

In this category, my personal choice for the film I most want to see nominated is “IT”.

 

This major box office hit from the fall movie season of 2017 was not only one of the best films of the year; it was also one of the best horror movies in years. Perfectly cast and very well written, this is the kind of horror movie I would recommend for those who do not usually watch horror movies.

 

The film tells the story of a group of young teens battling an evil disguised as a killer clown named Pennywise. It plays like a dark coming of age story that is much better than you might expect from a horror movie.  Horror movies rarely show up amongst the nominees for Best Picture and it has been almost 20 years since a film in that genre has made the list.

 

“Get Out” is getting a lot of attention and seems poised for a nomination but for my money, “IT” is a film that will stand the test of time.  I really hope Oscar voters dig deep and remember this film when they cast their votes.

 

 

Best Actor

Timothy Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread

James Franco - The Disaster Artist

Tom Hanks - The Post

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

 

This year the Best Actor and Best Actress field is a crowded one with many good performances that could make the cut.  In any other year, many of the performances that did not make the list this year would have been all but assured a spot among the five nominees for Best Actor / Best Actress. However, one performance is by far better than the ones getting the most press and I really hope that the voters remember it.

 

Jake Gyllenhaal in “Stronger.”  This film, which opened last September came and went even though it got some strong reviews for his performance. It is a shame though as it was one of the best films of last year.

 

Jake Gyllenhaal gave the performance of his career, as real life Boston Marathon Bombing Survivor Jeff Bauman. He transforms himself to play a man who loses his legs in the bombing and his struggles to overcome his physical disabilities. This is usually the type of performance the Academy loves to recognize, but for some reason it is not generating much buzz.  The Golden Globes shut out the film but I really hope the Academy members will look back and give this movie consideration. It really is a great performance by one of the best actors of his generation.

 

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins - The Shape Of Water

Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Margot Robbie - I Tonya

Saoirse Ronan - Ladybird

Meryl Streep - The Post

 

Like the Best Actor category, this one is crowded with many great performances that in any other year would have made the cut.  The one performance I feel is most deserving of a spot among the five nominees is Emma Stone in “Battle of The Sexes”.

 

Emma Stone is a big name in Hollywood these days. While she won an Oscar for LA LA Land last year, her work in “Battle of the Sexes” impressed me more...  She brings her A game to this story about the famous “Battle of The Sexes” tennis match between Billie Jean King (played by Stone) and Bobby Riggs. This performance gives her more range than her Oscar winning turn in LA LA Land. She has a good chance since she is red-hot right now. The one thing working against her is that the film did not get glowing reviews and faded from theatres and possibly the minds of Academy Members.

 

Best Supporting Actor

 

Willem Dafoe The Florida Project

Arnie Hammer Call Me By Your Name

Richard Jenkins The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer All The Money In The World

Sam Rockwell Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

 

This, along with Best Supporting Actress, is a field filled with potential nominees, and in this specific category, there is not a clear winner in the pack. Initially Willem Dafoe seemed a lock for the Oscar but in recent months Christopher Plummer and Sam Rockwell have garnered support and in Rockwell’s case, he took home the Golden Globe. There is one performance though that I feel deserves a look in this category and that is Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. While his screen time is limited compared to his co-star Sam Rockwell, he owns nearly every scene he is in. He has two previous nominations for Best Actor in The People VS Larry Flynt and Best Supporting Actor for The Messenger. I would not rule out a third nomination this year.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J Blige - Mudbound

Holly Hunter - The Big Sick

Allison Janney - I Tonya

Laurie Metcalfe - Ladybird

Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

 

This category is down to two women who have been duking it out on the awards circuit until now: Laurie Metcalfe and Allison Janney. Laurie Metcalfe has been the overall leader in terms of how many awards she has won, but Allison Janney won the Golden Globe and has scored wins with some of the Critics Circles in Canada and the USA. For anyone else, getting the Oscar nomination will have to suffice. However, I would like to see the work of Miranda Richardson noticed in Stronger. Playing Jeff Bauman’s mom, she takes what could have been a one-dimensional character and makes it more than that. We see her try to understand what her son is going through and how she feels powerless to help. This is a great supporting role and she does exceptional work here. 

 

Best Director

Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig - Ladybird

Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

Steven Spielberg - The Post

 

There are a number of people who could easily unseat one of the predicted nominees (Jordan Peel for Get Out, Sean Baker for The Florida Project etc.). My personal choice is Craig Gillespie for “I Tonya.”  This movie could have been a disaster, but he takes the wild and crazy story of Tonya Harding and puts it all together, telling a fascinating and darkly funny story.  It was one of last year's best films. While his name is not being mentioned as much as the performances, I think he deserves serious consideration

 

 

 

 

OPL Oscars Prediction 2018 by Alexandra_library

We may not have all the films on DVD yet, but here are some links to resources in our collections related to some of 2017's best films. Please see a blog post with more details: https://biblioottawalibrary.ca/en/blogs/academy-awards-predictions #fiction #romance #action #adventure #comedy #crime #horror #mystery #nonfiction

Comments

Great suggestions and it looks like most of your predictions were correct!