Oscars 2018 Predictions

02/03/2018

Oscar Nominations 2018

 

In my previous blog, I predicted the films I thought would receive Oscar nominations and what I had hoped would make the cut. Now that the nominations are out, I offer my picks on; whom I think will win in the six Major categories as well as my own personal choices on who I think should win. The titles in bold are who I think will be the winner in each category.

 

Best Picture

“Call Me by Your Name”

“Darkest Hour”

“Dunkirk”

“Get Out”

“Lady Bird”

“Phantom Thread”

“The Post”

“The Shape of Water”

“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”

 

Will Win – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. As late as last December all signs pointed to “The Shape of Water” as the film to beat.  It got glowing reviews all around for the film and its stars / director.  However, at the Golden Globes and SAG awards, Three Billboards won the night’s biggest award. While I would not entirely rule out the chances for The Shape of Water or even The Post given the timely subject matter, I still think Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri will take the night’s top honour. 

 

Should Win- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. This is masterpiece in all aspects. The writing, direction and acting is superb. A dark Comedy/Drama stays with you long after the credits role. Frances McDormand gives her best performance since Fargo (for which she won the Oscar for Best Actress back in 97) by playing a grief stricken mother seeking justice for the death of her daughter at the hands of a brutal killer.  This riveting film holds your attention from start to finish.

 

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

 

Will Win - Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour. Gary Oldman has been around for a number of years, but surprisingly this is only his second Oscar nomination (He previously scored a nomination in 2012 for Best Actor in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”.) Actors who play real life people are always a big hit with voters and I expect Gary Oldman will have no trouble winning here. His only real competition is veteran Daniel Day Lewis for “Phantom Thread” as he has announced his retirement from acting so the voters could honor his final performance.

 

Should Win- Gary Oldman Darkest Hour. In my opinion, this is a very weak category with excellent performances not making the cut. Having sad that amongst the nominees Gary Oldman delivers a very convincing performance as Winston Churchill. He looks so much like him you forget you are watching an actor.  It is really one of his best performances and after years of delivering good work in a variety of films, it is his time.

 

Best Actress:

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri"

Margot Robie "I Tonya"

Saorise Ronan "Lady Bird"

Meryl Streep "The Post"                                                                                                  

 

Will Win- Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri”. Aside from Sally Hawkins, there really is not much competition in this category and Frances McDormand has dominated the awards season so far. She turns in her best work in years. If she does not win, I will be very surprised.

 

Should Win – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. This is her best work since Fargo for which she won Best Actress in 97. It is a fantastic performance from one of the best performers of her generation. A darkly funny and at times deeply moving story about a grieving woman’s quest for justice when her daughter is brutally murdered

 

 Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

 

Will Win – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. Allot of people think Christopher Plummer is the one to beat in this category for stepping in at the last minute to replace Kevin Spacey in the finished movie “All The Money In The World” for which they did reshoots with Plummer replacing Spacey. There is the thought that two actors from one film will split their votes and cancel each other out. While I agree with those sentiments, I still think the Academy will honor Rockwell as much for his stellar performance in “Three Billboards…” as for his years of great work in some terrific indie films.

Should Win- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. The two people nominated for “Three Billboards…” are both deserving, but Rockwell has more screen time and turns in some terrific work here. He has been in allot of films you have probably seen but do not remember. This great performance should turn him into a household name. If you do not know his name now you will soon.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

 

Will Win- Allison Janney, “I Tonya”. The Academy loves people who play real life personalities immersing themselves fully with the help of makeup etc. so that you think you are looking at the real person and not a performer. As the abusive mother of Tonya Harding, she turns in a performance that is so good that when you watch her you would swear it is Levona Harding and not Allison Janney. For those reasons, I think she will win.

 

Should Win- Laurie Metcalfe Ladybird. This is actually a tough one as I thought both she and Allison Janney turned in the best work this year among this year’s nominees.  Most people will remember her for her Emmy winning role as Roseanne’s sister Jackie on the sitcom Roseanne but she has a lengthy resume turning in some great lead and supporting roles in both TV, Film, and on Broadway. Her work in this film is her best work yet on the big screen. Playing a mom dealing with a daughter who is heading into the College Years and anxious to leave the nest she shines. There are very funny moments and very touching moments that allow her to show allot of range.  This is a great performance from one of our most underrated actors’ on both the big and small screen.

 

Best Director

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water 

Greta Gerwig The Shape of Water                                                                                                        

Christopher Nolan Dunkirk

Jordan Peele Get Out

Paul Thomas Anderson Phantom Thread                                                                                                                                           

 

Will Win- Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water. We have seen Spanish / Mexican born filmmakers take the prize in this category 3 times in recent years. This year we will see a 4th. One of his previous films “Pans Labyrinth” was a major critical success and with his new film, he seems to have outdone himself. Mixing a cold war thriller with a monster movie and a romance is no small feat. He has already won the Golden Globe and should walk away with this one as well.

 

Should Win- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk. Surprisingly this is first nomination despite directing some great movies (Inception, Memento The recent Batman Trilogy).  The action scenes are quite impressive and by allowing us to see the soldiers as real people versus Hollywood actors, he creates a real sense of drama and tension as we care about these soldiers and what happens. It a terrific film made by one of our best filmmakers.